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| Happy Trails by Big Damn Jay - Sunday, May 30, 2010 |
| There comes a time when a site operator has to take a step back and evaluate their position and worth. It has been close to three years now since this site has been up, initially launching with UFC 78. We originally started as mmakicksass.com and our intention was to set up a quick pool-like site for our friends to track our UFC picks. We fully opened up to the public thinking we had the best shit out there and went through many styles and changes. We still do offer a uniqueness to the other Fantasy MMA sites which we are proud of. With all that said, we sadly announce we are stepping down. The two of us that run this place are finding the time-commitment difficult to keep day to day operations and maintenance running. It wasn't an easy decision. We would like to thank all our loyal players. You stuck with us through thick and thin. Without you guys, we wouldn't have nearly have made it this far. I would like to thank the Kracker Jap and Badabing from The MMA Mafia. They sent a lot of players and traffic our way. They are a great source of MMA news and an excellent place for discussion. I highly recommend signing up there. Thanks go out to Mike Hammersmith to actively recommended us to fellow fantasy players with his in-depth MMA Event betting and prediction analysis. We thank Gorilla Fight Gear for contributing most of the prizes to the winners of events. Looking back we feel we did okay for a couple of guys running this out of their garage. There were highs and certainly lows but we have no regrets. If anyone out there has an interest in starting up a site of their own, please by all means drop us a line, and we would be happy to offer any advice. With that, I bid you all, adieu. |
| UFC 114 Breakdown by Mike Hammersmith - Friday, May 28, 2010 |
 "Sugar" Rashad Evans vs. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson: While we didn't have to wait quite as long for this grudge match as Hughes vs. Serra, Evans vs. Jackson was still quite a long time in the making. After TUF 10, Rashad Evans and Quinton Jackson were set to face off, but following Jackson's involvement in the A-Team movie, the match was scrapped in favor of Evans vs. Thiago Silva. In a great match, Evans was able to use his wrestling and boxing to control Silva and punish him throughout the first two rounds, but found himself badly hurt in the 3rd when Silva clipped him with a punch. Silva was his own worst enemy at the end of the fight, deciding to taunt, rather than pursuit his opponent, and ultimately costing himself the match. With Jackson deciding to forgo other movie opportunities for the time being, the match is back on, and with little love lost between the two. Evans brings in a fantastic functional wrestling game and the kind of crisp MMA boxing you don't often see, particularly at the larger weights where heavy punches are favorable to solid defense and working off your jab. Heavy punches and raw power are what Rampage bring to this fight, and while that might not seem like much at this level of competition, long time fans understand exactly how hard Rampage can hit. A powerful puncher and with some of the best core strength in grappling, Rampage isn't a pushover for anyone and has shown himself to be lethal even late in the fight. This fight depends almost entirely on how much gym time Rampage has gotten, as he's a notoriously lazy fighter who has been known to blow up by as much as 40lbs when away from the cage. Following a coaching stint on TUF and a movie deal, Rampage was looking out of shape when cornering Cheick Kongo in his ill-fated bout with Frank Mir, and has a long way to go to get into shape for this level of competition. Although it could be over in a hurry if Rampage lands flush, I trust in Greg Jackson to have Evans ready for whatever Jackson throws at him, and to grind Rampage down, taking a decision from the former champ. Comparison Betting Odds: Rashad Evans -130 Quinton Jackson EV This is a close fight any way you look at it, but it's Jackson's lack of conditioning between fights that really puts Evans in the driver's seat here. At his best, Rampage has flattened legends like Chuck Liddell and Wanderlei Silva, and at his worst, was out-pointed by Forrest Griffin and lost his title. With a long lay-off, I have to give Evans an edge to control this fight, and considering how the line has moved since it opened, it seems the majority of bettors agree with me. If you're looking to get in on Evans, now's the time. Fantasy Pick: Rashad Evans via Decision Rampage remains extremely difficult to finish, and with Evans having to play this safe to avoid giving Rampage an opening to win, I don't see this being finished anywhere. Evans can use his faster hands and takedowns to put Rampage on the mat consistently and take every round in this fight. Joe Brammer vs. Aaron Riley: One of the lost gems of early UFC took place at UFC 37, and while it might not be for the best reason, it will live on as one of Aaron Riley's greatest matches. In this fight, a debuting "Ruthless" Robbie Lawlor took on the veteran fighter in Riley, and proceeded to land every single punching combination you could imagine on Riley. This was amazing both in the fact Lawlor could accurately put six and seven punch combinations together on Riley, and that Riley would stand there and take every one of them without stopping. This fight led to Riley being given the name "Iron Chin", and to having reconstructive surgery on his mouth. Since then, Riley has been considered one of the toughest fighters in the game, and has shown this time and again in the cage. His opponent, Joe Brammer, has a reputation of his own coming into this fight, having an unorthodox striking and grappling style that saw him go 7-0 before his UFC debut. Being put through the ringer by tough Canadian fighter Mark Bocek, Brammer has one more shot to show he belongs at this level, and will have a tough time doing so against Riley. Everything about Riley is tough, and this is going to be a real problem for Brammer. He's tough to hurt standing, tough to take down, tough to submit, and his gas tank tough to deplete. While Brammer is an intriguing fighter, he's not ready for this level of fighting just yet, and will find that out against Riley when he's out-pointed everywhere the fight goes. Comparison Betting Odds: Aaron Riley -150 Joe Brammer +120 Riley holds an advantage anywhere this fight goes, and Brammer needs to fight a perfect tactical bout of long striking and select takedowns if he hopes to win. While Brammer is talented, I don't see him having that kind of control and precision with only two years of serious ring time under his belt. Riley should catch Brammer just about everywhere and grind the young fighter down. This has potential to be a great bet if Riley comes in at decent odds, as Brammer has little he can do to Riley, making this a possible anchor bet for the event. Fantasy Pick: Aaron Riley via Decision Riley has the tools to hurt Brammer and keep the younger man guessing during this fight, but he's not exactly known for strong finishes at this level of competition. While he might have Brammer in trouble a few times here, don't expect Riley to stop Brammer before the bell. A clear unanimous decision win awaits Riley at the end of this bout. Efrain Escudero vs. Dan "The Upgrade" Lauzon: Many here will remember Escudero's last outing, and the sickening angle Evan Dunham cranked Efrain Escudero's arm at to make him tap. Luckily, Escudero suffered no permanent injury from the armbar and suffered his first loss with grace, opting to come back right away and get back into the mix at Lightweight. His opponent will be Dan Lauzon, whom is the younger brother of Joe Lauzon, but a wholly different fighter this his brother. Much more known for his heavy hands and aggression, Dan Lauzon has had a rough restart in the UFC, having lost to Cole Miller in his last bout, and will need to pull out a grand performance here to stay onboard. Unfortunately, Lauzon's love of striking will do him little good against Escudero's rapid-fire wrestling and submission game, which is a realm he of wholly outclassed in against the TUF 8 winner. Through a spirited effort, expect Lauzon to tough out the first round, but finally get sucked into an RNC early in the second. Comparison Betting Odds: Efrain Escudero -300 Dan Lauzon +220 Dan Lauzon's sole out to win this fight is his punching power, and considering Escudero's sturdy chin and fast takedowns, it's not something you should be counting on. Escudero comes into this fight as one of the safest bets on the card and a great addition to any parlays for this event. Fantasy Pick: Efrain Escudero via 2nd round Submission (choke) While I think Escudero takes this fight well before the final bell, the round is kind of a tough call here. Lauzon isn't exactly a whelp on the mat, but he simply can't hang with the likes of Escudero in that area, unless he takes a purely defensive mindset on the mat. I think a combination of Escudero's respect of Lauzon's power and Lauzon's defensive abilities on the mat will force this fight into deeper water than many think. While it could end in the first, take a chance with a second round finish and hopefully you can scoop up some extra points from those that call this a complete mismatch. John Hathaway vs. Diego "Nightmare" Sanchez: Few fighters have had a successful bout with BJ Penn, but Sanchez may go down as having one of the worst showing of all time (aside from Caol Uno's flying knee into uppercut sandwich combo) in his title bout at UFC 107. Being badly hurt with punches through the entirety of the first round, Sanchez was forced to revert to unsuccessful takedowns against the cage, until he was mercifully stopped from a cut sustained from a head kick. With his career at Lightweight definitively halted, Sanchez has decided to return to Welterweight after a year, but will find a much changed division. His opponent will be the red hot prospect John Hathaway, a grappling phenom who has gone undefeated in his twelve fight career and thoroughly dominated tough fighters like Paul Taylor and Rick Story. A lot of people will be quick to grab Sanchez in this fight, but a great deal of respect must be given to Hathaway, who brings world-class conditioning and relentless takedowns to the game. While Sanchez should have an edge standing and a world of experience over Hathaway, his mental state is constantly in question in his fights, and a young buck like Hathaway might just have the confidence to shut Sanchez down. Comparison Betting Odds: Diego Sanchez -130 John Hathaway EV Sanchez has the punching power and veteran's gritty to put up a hell of a fight here, and with all being well with Sanchez, I think he can take Hathaway to a decision win or late stoppage. With things being not-so-great with Sanchez, Hathaway can control this fight and work Sanchez over for three rounds, taking a handy decision win. Throwing money around in a Sanchez fight is rarely a good idea, as he's so hot and cold in fights it's generally a crapshoot either way. While the line on this fight isn't anything unusual yet, if Sanchez supporters start throwing money down, a bet on Hathaway may become a better opportunity. Anything around +200 on Hathaway is a wise investment. Fantasy Pick: Diego Sanchez via 3rd round TKO (split scoring) or Decision (straight scoring) The big question here is how Sanchez will show up for his reintroduction to the Welterweight division. While Hathaway certainly has the skills to make this fight interesting, I'm not quite willing to pull the trigger here and say Sanchez loses the fight. Sanchez has superior striking ability and the takedown defense to make Hathaway work for every inch of ground, and if anyone can break the young fighter, it would be Sanchez with his trademark aggression. Hathaway is very difficult to corral on the mat, so count on a standing KO or decision victory for Sanchez. "The Stun Gun" Dong Hyun Kim vs. Amir Sadollah: TUF 7 winner and host of several UFC special features, Amir Sadollah, has been trying to make up lost ground after his loss to Johny Hendricks and his extended absence from the Octagon due to injuries and illness. Having picked up his fight schedule as of late though, he has put together two solid wins over Phil Baroni and Brad Blackburn, but will look to step up in competition against the undefeated Dong Hyun Kim. Kim has been on the shelf with injuries for nearly a year, but in his time in UFC, he's managed to leave an impress with his victories over Matt Brown and TJ Grant, as well as a controversial fight with Karo Parisyan. This is one of the most competitive fights on the card, as Kim brings the reach and clinch grappling abilities to give Sadollah fits in this bout, while Sadollah is the fresher and more active fighter, and has shown the best rate of improvement in his time in the UFC. Dong Hyun Kim -120 Amir Sadollah -120 This fight is dead even in my books, as a long lay-off for Kim and an ever improving Sadollah make this one difficult to determine. Kim has all the skills to work Sadollah over in this fight with his high level judo and reach, but his gas tank has looked suspect in the past, and a year off likely won't fix that problem. The big question is, is how many rounds Kim can control this fight for before gassing out. If Kim can put Sadollah down and stay in top control for the majority of the first and second rounds, he should be able to coast to a decision win, but if Sadollah can cut angles standing and score points on the feet, he could possibly sway the judges his way as well. Betting wise, this would be one to avoid, as the line opened near to what I have and hasn't moved since, meaning the majority of bettors are just as cautious of this one as I am. Fantasy Pick: Amir Sadollah via Decision If Kim was 100% healthy coming into this fight, I'd take him in a heartbeat, but with health concerns and the improvement of the TUF 7 winner, I find myself having to side with Sadollah here. That's not to say there is no value in Kim, as he may be a ridiculous underdog on some fantasy games, and well worth the risk for taking via decision. Use your head here in this coin-flip of a fight, but I'd take Sadollah unless common opinion provoked me to do otherwise. Michael "The Count" Bisping vs. Dan Miller: Two fighters attempting to tread water in a dangerous division, Michael "The Count" Bisping and Dan Miller are set to collide at the MGM Grand in a fight where careers are possibly at stake. TUF 3 winner Michael Bisping left the Light Heavyweight division a long time ago, but while he saw success at 205lbs, the Middleweight division has been less than kind to him. Having gone 4-2 since his move, Bisping suffered one of the most brutal KOs in the history of MMA at the hands of Dan Henderson, and in his last bout, dropped a decision to Wanderlei "The Axe Murderer" Silva. Despite a wealth of talent, Dan Miller hasn't faired all that much better, going 3-2 in his time in the UFC, although his losses are against current and former title challengers. Both men will need to step up their games to keep from being swept under the rug in the UFC, and this is easily the most important fight of both their careers. Bisping brings in a diverse striking game, strong bottom game BJJ and a work ethic that has broken several sturdy fighters in his time in the UFC. Miller, on the other hand, brings a hybrid from or wrestling and BJJ that allows him to control all but the best grapplers on the planet, either sinking submissions or out-right hustling them on the mat. While Miller's stand-up isn't exactly top-notch, he does bring enough power and defensive striking to at least counter some of the hurt Bisping can inflict upon him, and allow him to put this fight on the mat when he needs it. Bisping is a tough test, but considering his takedown defense hasn't been impressive to date, nor his ability to KO opponents, Miller can take this if his mind is set to it. Comparison Betting Odds: Dan Miller -150 Michael Bisping +120 While his striking may not be at the same level as most of the UFC, Miller's highly-effective wrestling and BJJ combination make him a nightmare for all but the best grapplers on the planet. While Bisping can certainly loop together combinations and out-work a majority of opponents, he'll have a difficult time doing so on his back against a BJJ black belt and wrestler of Miller's caliber. Bisping will have to make Miller work hard from top and hope to get back to his feet enough times to sway the judges here, or face another loss in the Middleweight division. Betting wise, this could be a great opportunity, as Bisping will likely be a favorite after Miller's two losses in a row. Any money at a positive number on Miller is a sound bet, as he can control this fight and take a split decision at the least, depending on how much offense Bisping can get going on the feet. Fantasy Pick: Dan Miller via 3rd round Submission (choke) (split scoring) or Decision (straight scoring) Miller should have this fight handily if he can work his takedown and top position game plan on Bisping for three rounds. The big question is if he can finish him off or not, and if so, how he'd go about it. Considering Bisping is generally happy to work off his back and look for opportunities to stand up, Miller's best chance for a submission comes during the transitions and that submission would likely be a guillotine or RNC. Taking a 3rd round submission by choke should cover all bases here on split scoring, although I'd go with a decision on straight scoring, on the chance Bisping can't find his way to his feet except between rounds. Jesse "Kid Hercules" Forbes vs. Ryan Jensen: For whatever reason, the UFC Middleweight division has an odd assortment of fighters who are all basically identical, and who have been fighting against each other on basically every card for a year now. I call them the "Cookie-cutter Wrestle Punchers" and am thoroughly sick of seeing them fight each other. While lead Cookie-cutter Wrestle Puncher, Mark Munoz, has managed to break this mold and officially get into the division, along with Nick Catone, the other two apparently have to fight each other. Both men have wrestling skills, with Forbes having the better credentials in that regard, but Jensen brings in a superior bottom game to this fight. On the feet, I'd call them even, and I think that's likely where this fight will unfold. Look for the better conditioned Jesse Forbes to have an advantage here and win a decision over Jensen. Comparison Betting Odds: Jesse Forbes -130 Ryan Jensen EV This fight is likely to come down to conditioning, as I don't believe either man has the skill to submit or stop the other. With Forbes coming from the better wrestling pedigree and the better camp, I have to trust his energy to be at an all time high for this fight, and for him to out-work Jensen everywhere the fight goes. Betting wise, considering the amount of times the Cookie Cutter Wrestle Punchers have been to split decisions, I'd avoid putting money on this one unless something very strange happens to the odds. Fantasy Pick: Jesse Forbes via Decision This one is bit of a no-brainer. Both men are roughly the same fighter with roughly the same degree of finishing skills, and I can't see either fighter finishing the other in convincing faction in this fight. Short of a rare KO from either man or a colossal mis-step on the mat, expect this to reach the scorecards. Jason Brilz vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira: Originally the co-main event, menacing Pride fighter and amateur boxer, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira was set to take on former Light Heavyweight Champion Forrest Griffin. An injury sustained by Griffin forced the UFC to scramble for an opponent for Nogueira, and after several high-profile fighters declined (I can hardly blame them) Jason Brilz has stepped up to the challenge. I'm not even going to pretend this is a competitive fight, as even with a full training camp, Brilz would be hard-pressed to exploit a weakness in Nogueira's game. While Brilz does have some decent power in his wild striking and a fairly suffocating top-game, Nogueira is the worst possible match-up for Brilz and can beat him to the punch, has a better chin, and has the bottom game BJJ to stop him cold. Comparison Betting Odds: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira -500 Jason Brilz +350 Nogueira's boxing, iron chin, track record against wrestlers and BJJ make him an upper-tier fighter for a reason. While Brilz doesn't often get a ton of credit, even his biggest fans can't reasonably argue that he's anywhere near the top of the division, and Nogueira is exactly the guy to show you this. This is the safest bet on the card, although don't expect the payout to be kind. In fact, I'd suspect this line might even reach -1000, so if you're betting Nogueria, get on it early. Fantasy Pick: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira via 1st round TKO I don't suspect this fight will last very long unless Nogueira completely underestimates Brilz. Brilz tends to move forward with wide punches and work for takedowns against the fence, which basically plays into the counter punching, muay thai and BJJ of Nogueira. Count on a brief scuffle and Nogueira flattening Brilz as he moves in midway through the first round. Luiz Arthur "Banha" Cane vs. Cyrille "The Snake" Diabate: Luiz Arthur "Banha" Cane came into the UFC as an unknown, having only competed in Brazil prior to his time in the UFC, Cane managed to tear through all comers (he lost to James Irvin in a DQ, in a fight he was well in control of) and seemed set for big things. His style of forward movement and counter punching was exactly what the doctor ordered against Sokoudjou and Steven Cantwell, but he ran into a brick wall against the highly-talented Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. In that bout, his lack of movement proved to be his undoing, as Nogueira's punches found the mark every time, breaking his eye socket and knocking him out in under two minutes. His opponent is a new-comer to the UFC, although well known by fight fans as a kickboxer and instructor, having appeared in TUF 9 as Dan Henderson's Muay Thai coach. At 6'6", he's a lanky fighter who has deceptive power in his hands and excellent timing, making him a tough fighter to approach with similar striking skills. This fight has real upset potential, as while Cane is the more recognizable fighter in the UFC, Diabate has the reach and movement to make this a long night for him. Cane needs to move well and get inside to use his nuclear left straight, but has never shown the mentality to hustle on the feet, and that's what could seal the deal for him here. Comparison Betting Odds: Cyrille Diabate -130 Luiz Arthur Cane EV With Cane coming off of a serious injury, and with a style that plays into his opponent's strength, I have to side with the veteran fighter in Diabate. Diabate can move well on the outside, use his length to land on Cane from a safe distance, and overall just outwork the Brazilian fighter. Cane's advantage could come from closing that distance and taking Diabate down, who is a notoriously easy person to put on the mat. If Cane works a smart game plan, he could certainly take this, but he hasn't shown that kind of ring smarts in the past, making the appearance of such a distant possibility. These odds imply Cane will fight as he always has for the most part, but either fight would be worth taking at a decent positive number. Fantasy Pick: Cyrille Diabate via 3rd round TKO (split scoring) or Decision (straight scoring) Diabate brings the power and technical striking to give Cane fits in this bout, and should walk away with a win if he can keep to his game plan and stop Cane from getting inside. The big question is if Diabate can land big power on Cane and stop him. While I think it's more likely he plays it safe in his first UFC fight, taking a 3rd round TKO on split scoring makes sense, as Diabate's deceptively powerful punches and flying knee strikes could put Cane away in a hurry if he's not ready for them. Todd Duffee vs. Mike Russow: Not many fighters received as much hype as Duffee after his record-setting KO of Tim Hague at UFC 102. The naturally gigantic young Heavyweight didn't get to show much in his debut, but at the least we saw his power and killer instinct on display. After several fights falling through due to injury, Duffee is back, and against original opponent, Mike Russow. Russow is a part-time fighter and full-time police officer in Chicago, but has had a decent fighting career despite his main career taking a majority of his time. Both men are huge, but Russow carries a lot of extra weight, and has had trouble in the past with natural Heavyweights. This, combined with Duffee's power and training with top wrestling camps make him a shoe-in to take Russow out and continue his journey in the UFC. Comparison Betting Odds: Todd Duffee -185 Mike Russow +140 Russow just doesn't have what it takes in his current condition and lack of full-time training, and will have a real issue with Duffee here. Duffee has the power and forward movement to make this a rough night for Russow, and makes a strong bet at the odds posted. I'm not sure where the line will be when it opens, but I recommend getting on it right away, as I feel Duffee will draw a lot of money quickly. Fantasy Pick: Todd Duffee via 2nd round TKO Russow's survival instinct and ability to bully against the fence could be what saves him the same fate as Tim Hague, as he has the wrestling skills to at least stall this fight out for awhile and test the young fighter's cardio. I wouldn't count on it saving him for long though, as Duffee has a chance to flatten Russow every time the two are separated. I think Duffee wins a tough first round, but comes out in the second and puts the hurt on a flagging Russow to get the finish early. |
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| UFC 114 Top 10 Players | |||||
Correct Predictions | |||||
| 1 | Fasiczka | 8-2 | |||
| 2 | Jason Westhaver | 8-2 | |||
| 3 | ExternalBoxer | 7-3 | |||
| 4 | themike21 | 7-3 | |||
| 5 |
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jodybanman | 7-3 | ||
| 6 |
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ONE HIT QUIT | 7-3 | ||
| 7 | Tiger Tanaka | 7-3 | |||
| 8 | tahotharake | 7-3 | |||
| 9 | arush | 7-3 | |||
| 10 | bigmike187 | 6-4 | |||
Money Won | |||||
| 1 |
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ONE HIT QUIT | $98941 | ||
| 2 | Kracker_Jap | $45946 | |||
| 3 |
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Hala_Madrid | $43990 | |
| 4 |
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D_Hendo | $37655 | |
| 5 |
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andersondasilva | $35894 | |
| 6 |
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Auberg | $33877 | ||
| 7 |
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ManBoobKilla | $32996 | ||
| 8 |
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klop325 | $30178 | ||
| 9 |
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Mike Hammersmith | $24404 | |
| 10 |
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doc_who_7 | $24251 | |
| 2010 Season Top 10 Players | |||||
Correct Predictions | |||||
| 1 | JDV | 108-51 | |||
| 2 |
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Hala_Madrid | 106-52 | |
| 3 | skit1bc | 105-54 | |||
| 4 |
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ONE HIT QUIT | 104-55 | ||
| 5 |
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jodybanman | 103-56 | ||
| 6 |
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kopower | 102-57 | ||
| 7 | JL-5000 v2.0 | 101-58 | |||
| 8 |
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doc_who_7 | 100-59 | |
| 9 | ArsnlTim | 100-59 | |||
| 10 |
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caidel | 99-60 | ||
Money Won | |||||
| 1 |
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ONE HIT QUIT | $237601 | ||
| 2 |
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metalmike00 | $150223 | ||
| 3 |
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doc_who_7 | $148658 | |
| 4 |
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klop325 | $138176 | ||
| 5 |
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D_Hendo | $135826 | |
| 6 |
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ManBoobKilla | $134466 | ||
| 7 |
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Hala_Madrid | $124253 | |
| 8 |
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kopower | $85490 | ||
| 9 |
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andersondasilva | $79406 | |
| 10 | Kracker_Jap | $76107 | |||
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